CorsodoroExecutive Summary
The global cashew market enters Q1 2026 under significant supply-side pressure. A convergence of African export restrictions, elevated freight costs, and US tariff disruptions drove a 60% spike in CNF prices through 2025, with benchmark prices reaching $1,600–1,700/ton by October. W320 kernels, the most widely traded grade, are currently pricing at $3.00–$3.50/kg FOB Vietnam, while W240 premiums remain at 5–15% above W320.
Vietnam, the world's dominant processor, has set an ambitious $5 billion kernel export target for 2026, aiming to ship 800,000 tonnes. However, raw cashew nut (RCN) supply constraints from West Africa-where Benin's export ban remains in effect-threaten to cap processing volumes. Global production sits at approximately 4.3 million metric tons, with the 2025/26 season estimate showing a slight contraction to 5.21 million MT before an expected rebound.
For European buyers, the outlook requires proactive procurement. Both RCN and kernel prices are expected to rise further through Q1–Q2 2026. Early contracting and diversified origin sourcing are recommended.
Market Overview
The cashew market has undergone a structural repricing over the past 12 months. What began as isolated supply disruptions in West Africa escalated into a broad tightening that affected every node of the supply chain-from farm-gate pricing in Ivory Coast to CIF landed costs in Rotterdam.
Global production snapshot
Global cashew production reached approximately 4.3 million MT in 2025, representing a 17% increase from 2020 levels. Africa continues to dominate raw production, accounting for 60% of global RCN output. However, the 2025/26 season estimate of 5.21 million MT reflects weather-related pressure, with a rebound expected in 2026 as monsoon conditions improve.
| Country | Role | 2025 Volume | Key Development |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | Largest processor/exporter | ~300,000 MT production; 3.12M tons RCN imported | $5B export target for 2026; imported $4.67B in RCN |
| India | Major producer & processor | 725,000–780,000 MT | Domestic consumption rising; competing for RCN supply |
| Ivory Coast | Largest RCN producer (Africa) | Leading African origin | Farmgate price set at CFA 400/kg for 2026 (down 6% YoY) |
| Tanzania | Rising African processor | Growing volumes | Strong 2026 crop expected, partially offsetting West African tightness |
| Benin | RCN producer | Restricted | Export ban on RCN from April 2025-major supply disruption |
Price Analysis
The price environment remains elevated across all kernel grades. The benchmark W320 grade-which accounts for 60–70% of global trade volume-is trading at $3.00–$3.50/kg FOB Vietnam, with European landed costs significantly higher after freight, insurance, and import duties.
Kernel price matrix (Q1 2026)
| Grade | FOB Vietnam (USD/kg) | EUR/kg (est. FOB) | EUR/kg (EU Wholesale) | Premium to W320 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W180 | $8.50–9.50 | €7.80–8.70 | €12–18 | +180–200% |
| W210 | $8.00–8.80 | €7.35–8.10 | €10–14 | +140–170% |
| W240 | $7.50–8.15 | €6.90–7.50 | €7–10 | +5–15% |
| W320 | $3.00–3.50 | €2.80–3.25 | €5–7 | Benchmark |
| W450 | $2.60–3.10 | €2.40–2.85 | €4–6 | −10–15% |
| Splits (S) | $2.20–2.70 | €2.00–2.50 | €3.5–5.5 | −25–35% |
| Large Pieces (LP) | $1.80–2.40 | €1.65–2.20 | €3–5 | −30–40% |
Note: W240 prices are converted from $3.40–$3.70/lb. FOB-to-CIF spreads have widened due to elevated ocean freight rates, particularly on Asia–Europe routes.
Price trend drivers
Three converging forces drove the 60% CNF price spike observed through 2025:
- Benin RCN export ban (April 2025): Benin, a significant West African RCN origin, imposed an export ban that immediately tightened the global RCN pool. This reduced available raw material for Vietnamese and Indian processors.
- US tariffs (10% on cashew imports): New US tariffs disrupted established trade flows, forcing re-routing of shipments and creating temporary demand surges in alternative markets, including Europe.
- Elevated ocean freight: Container rates on Asia–EU and Africa–Asia routes remained well above pre-2024 levels, adding $150–300/MT to landed costs for European buyers.
By October 2025, CNF prices had reached $1,600–1,700/ton, a level not sustained since the 2022 supply crunch. Weather-induced crop stress in both Benin and Ghana further compounded supply concerns.
Both RCN and kernel prices are expected to rise further in Q1–Q2 2026. The Ivory Coast has set farmgate prices at CFA 400/kg (down 6% from CFA 425 in 2025), signalling expectations of continued tightness. European buyers should anticipate landed costs of EUR 6–8/kg for W320 through mid-2026.
Supply Analysis
African production: constraints and shifts
Africa's role as the dominant RCN producer (60% of global output) makes the continent the swing factor in global cashew pricing. The current supply landscape is defined by two countervailing forces:
- West African tightness: Benin's export ban, Ghana's crop stress from adverse weather, and Ivory Coast's 6% farmgate price cut all point to reduced availability of RCN for export to processing hubs in Asia.
- East African growth: Tanzania is expected to deliver a strong 2026 crop, partially offsetting West African constraints. Tanzania's growing processing capacity also means more kernel is available directly from the continent.
Vietnam: processing dominance under pressure
Vietnam remains the world's indispensable cashew processor. In 2025, the country imported 3.12 million tons of RCN worth US$4.67 billion for processing into export-ready kernels. The government's 2026 target of 800,000 tonnes of kernel exports generating $5 billion is ambitious but faces headwinds from tightening RCN supply.
Vietnam's processing infrastructure is unmatched-the country handles roughly 60% of all globally processed cashews. However, the sector is highly dependent on imported RCN, making it vulnerable to African supply disruptions.
India: competing for supply
India produced 725,000–780,000 MT of cashew in 2025 but is increasingly a net importer of RCN to feed its processing industry. Growing domestic consumption (India is the world's second-largest cashew consumer) means less Indian output is available for export, tightening global kernel supply.
Demand Analysis
European consumption trends
European demand for cashew kernels remains structurally robust, driven by the healthy snacking megatrend, plant-based diet adoption, and premiumisation across retail and food service channels. Key demand characteristics include:
- W320 dominance: The W320 grade accounts for the vast majority of European import volume, used across retail snack packaging, food service, and manufacturing.
- Organic growth: Organic-certified cashews command a 20–40% premium and are growing faster than conventional. BRC and IFS certification are table stakes for EU retail.
- Split and piece demand: European food manufacturers (bakeries, confectioners, dairy) are increasingly sourcing splits and large pieces as cost-effective alternatives at 30–40% below whole kernel prices.
Impact of US tariffs on EU trade flows
The 10% US tariff on cashew imports has redirected some Vietnamese and Indian kernel shipments toward Europe. While this has increased short-term availability in EU ports, it has also contributed to price firmness as global demand competes for a constrained supply pool.
Q2–Q4 2026 Outlook
| Factor | Direction | Impact on Prices | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| RCN supply (Africa) | Constrained | Upward pressure | High |
| Vietnam processing | Stable to growing | Moderating | Medium |
| Benin export ban | Ongoing | Upward pressure | High |
| US tariff impact | Trade flow shifts | Mixed (EU prices firm) | Medium |
| Ocean freight | Elevated | Upward pressure on CIF | High |
| 2026 monsoon outlook | Improved | Potential relief in H2 | Low–Medium |
| EU demand | Steady growth | Supports prices | High |
Base case: Prices remain elevated through Q2 2026, with W320 FOB Vietnam holding in the $3.00–3.50/kg range. Some relief possible in H2 2026 if Tanzania's crop delivers and improved monsoon conditions boost 2026/27 season projections.
Upside risk (to prices): Extended Benin export ban, further US tariff escalation, or a poor Indian crop could push W320 above $3.75/kg FOB.
Downside risk (to prices): Normalisation of ocean freight, strong Vietnamese processing throughput, and US tariff rollback could ease prices back toward $2.75/kg FOB by Q4 2026.
Recommendations for European Buyers
Given the current supply-demand dynamics, we recommend the following approach for European importers and food manufacturers:
- Contract early for H2 2026 delivery: Forward cover for Q3–Q4 requirements now, before the full impact of the constrained 2025/26 RCN season is priced into kernel markets.
- Diversify origins: Reduce concentration risk by sourcing across Vietnam, India, and emerging East African processors (Tanzania, Mozambique). Single-origin dependency is increasingly risky.
- Consider grade substitution: For manufacturing applications, splits and large pieces offer 30–40% cost savings versus whole kernels with no functional compromise. The premium for W320 over splits has widened, creating clear value opportunities.
- Monitor EU aflatoxin testing: Cashew kernels face maximum aflatoxin limits of 2.0 µg/kg (B1) and 4.0 µg/kg (total) for consumer-ready product under EU Regulation 2023/915. Request pre-shipment testing certificates from all suppliers.
- Hedge freight exposure: With ocean freight rates remaining elevated, locking in freight contracts or sourcing CIF rather than FOB can reduce cost volatility.