CorsodoroExecutive Summary
The global almond market enters 2026 in a state of cautious optimism, tempered by significant uncertainty around the new crop. California's 2025 harvest delivered 3.00 billion meat pounds-a solid 10% increase over 2024-but the critical Nonpareil variety underperformed, arriving short in central California counties. Kernel pricing, which had been rising at approximately $0.06/week through September 2025, softened slightly by January 2026, down $0.05/lb from the prior month.
European demand remains strong. California supplies 65% of European almond consumption, and Western Europe exports surged 43% in late 2025, with a 31% year-to-date increase. The US is forecast to export 925,000 tons of almonds in the 2025/26 marketing year.
Spanish Marcona almonds-Europe's premium domestic variety-command EUR 6.60–9.00/kg depending on preparation, while Spain's total 2025 production reached an estimated 127,639 tons. The 2026 outlook is clouded by adverse bloom conditions in both California and Spain, with cold and wet weather during peak flowering likely to produce highly varied yields.
Market Overview
California: the world's supply engine
California remains the dominant force in global almond production, with 1.39 million bearing acres producing approximately 80% of the world's supply. The 2025 crop of 3.00 billion meat pounds (USDA Objective Measurement, July 2025) represented a healthy recovery from the 2024 crop of 2.73 billion pounds.
However, the headline number masks important varietal detail. Nonpareil, which makes up roughly 40% of total production, underperformed expectations. Central California counties reported particularly weak Nonpareil yields, and inshell Nonpareil now commands a premium over kernels-an unusual market signal indicating tighter supply for this benchmark variety.
About 70–74% of California almonds are exported internationally, making the state's crop a global price-setter. US world almond exports are forecast at 925,000 tons for 2025/26.
Grower economics
Sustainability pricing remains a critical factor. California growers need $3.00–$3.50/lb to maintain sustainable operations, covering rising input costs (water, labor, pest management). As of late 2025, standard kernel pricing was trading near this threshold at approximately $2.50–3.00/lb, putting margin pressure on growers and raising questions about future acreage decisions.
Price Analysis
Price comparison by origin (Q1 2026)
| Origin / Variety | Price | Currency | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| California standard kernel | $2.50–3.00/lb | USD | Late 2025; rising ~$0.06/wk in Sept; softened $0.05/lb by Jan 2026 |
| California Nonpareil inshell | Premium to kernel | USD | Unusual market signal; Nonpareil supply tighter than expected |
| Spanish raw almond (wholesale) | €4.40/kg | EUR | Reported January 2025 |
| Spanish Marcona 12/14mm (FCA) | €6.60/kg | EUR | Natural, unprocessed; FCA Spain |
| Spanish Marcona (Madrid market) | €6.70–9.00/kg | EUR | June 2025; range by preparation (blanched, fried, etc.) |
| Spanish 2026 wholesale range | €3.50–5.40/kg | EUR | Depending on variety and grade |
Price trend analysis
The almond market exhibited two distinct phases in 2025:
- Q3 2025 (bullish): Kernel prices rose steadily at approximately $0.06/week through September, driven by strong export demand and Nonpareil crop concerns. European buyers accelerated purchasing, contributing to the 43% surge in Western Europe exports.
- Q4 2025–Q1 2026 (consolidation): Prices softened modestly, declining approximately $0.05/lb by January 2026. The larger-than-expected overall crop (despite Nonpareil weakness) and seasonal post-harvest supply pressure contributed to the easing.
Spanish Marcona almonds remain the most expensive almond variety in European trade, commanding EUR 6.60–9.00/kg versus EUR 3.50–5.40/kg for standard Spanish varieties-a premium of 60–90%. The premium reflects Marcona's unique round shape, higher oil content, and superior flavour profile favoured in confectionery, marzipan, and turron production. Organic Marcona achieves additional premiums of 15–25%.
Supply Analysis
California crop composition
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total crop (meat lbs) | 2.73 billion | 3.00 billion | +10% |
| Bearing acres | 1.38 million | 1.39 million | +0.7% |
| Nonpareil share | ~40% | ~40% (underperformed) | Below forecast |
| Export share | 70–74% | 70–74% | Stable |
| World export forecast | - | 925,000 tons | - |
Spanish production
Spain, Europe's primary domestic almond producer, delivered an estimated 127,639 tons in 2025-up 5% from the prior season and 34% above the four-year average. However, this headline masks regional divergence. Heavy rains during flowering slashed yields in Cordoba and Granada by up to 30%, while other regions performed well.
Organic almonds from Spain (and increasingly Italy) face growing competition, particularly for the European organic segment. Spain's organic almond production is expanding, offering European buyers a shorter supply chain alternative to California organic.
2026 crop outlook: uncertainty ahead
The 2026 bloom season has introduced significant uncertainty across both major origins:
- California: Trees need recovery after delivering the strong 2025 crop. The 2026 bloom started very early, then encountered cold and wet weather during peak bloom. This is expected to produce highly varied crops by variety and region.
- Spain: The 2026 bloom was similarly challenged, with cold and wet conditions during peak flowering. Early indications suggest yields may be below average in southern regions.
Both California and Spain experienced adverse bloom conditions for the 2026 crop. European buyers should plan for potential tightness in H2 2026 and early 2027, particularly for Nonpareil and Marcona varieties. Early forward contracting is strongly recommended.
Demand Analysis
European import dynamics
Europe's appetite for almonds continues to grow, supported by health-conscious consumption trends, plant-based ingredient demand, and premiumisation in bakery and confectionery. Key demand metrics:
- California dominance: California supplies approximately 65% of European almond consumption, a share that has remained stable despite growing Spanish and Italian production.
- Export surge: Western Europe exports from California were up 43% in late 2025, with a 31% year-to-date increase-the strongest growth in years.
- Organic growth: The organic almond segment is growing faster than conventional, with buyers increasingly sourcing from Spain and Italy for proximity and carbon footprint advantages.
Key applications driving demand
| Application | Preferred Variety | Volume Trend | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almond milk / beverages | California Nonpareil | Growing 8–12% YoY | Largest single-use growth driver in Europe |
| Confectionery & marzipan | Spanish Marcona | Stable to growing | Premium segment; Marcona essential for traditional European products |
| Bakery ingredients | California / Spanish standard | Steady | Almond flour and meal growing faster than whole kernels |
| Snack retail | California Nonpareil (whole) | Growing | Premium positioning; organic gaining share |
| Chocolate & coatings | Spanish / California | Growing | Almond-based chocolate products expanding in Europe |
2026 Price Forecast & Outlook
| Factor | Direction | Impact on Prices | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 crop carryover | Adequate (3B lbs) | Moderating | High |
| Nonpareil availability | Tight | Upward for Nonpareil | High |
| 2026 bloom conditions | Adverse (cold/wet) | Upward in H2 | Medium |
| Spanish production | Mixed by region | Upward for Marcona | Medium |
| EU demand | Strong growth (+43%) | Supports prices | High |
| Organic segment | Rapid growth | Premium widening | High |
| Grower economics | Margins squeezed | Price floor at $3.00/lb | Medium |
Base case: California kernel prices trade in the $2.75–3.25/lb range through H1 2026, with potential for firming in H2 as the 2026 crop outlook crystallises. Spanish Marcona holds in the EUR 6.50–8.50/kg range. European buyers should expect stable-to-slightly-higher costs for the year.
Upside risk (to prices): If the 2026 California crop comes in below 2.5 billion pounds (due to adverse bloom), prices could push above $3.50/lb. Nonpareil premiums may widen further.
Downside risk (to prices): A surprisingly strong 2026 crop, combined with high 2025 carryover inventory, could push prices toward $2.40/lb-below grower sustainability levels, which would trigger acreage reduction in subsequent years.
Recommendations for European Buyers
The combination of strong H1 supply from the 2025 crop and uncertain H2 outlook from adverse 2026 bloom conditions creates a clear strategic window for European importers.
- Lock in H1 volumes now: Carryover from the 3.0 billion pound 2025 crop provides adequate supply through mid-2026. Current prices offer reasonable entry points before 2026 crop uncertainty is fully priced.
- Secure Nonpareil early: With Nonpareil underperforming in 2025 and inshell commanding a premium over kernels, availability of this key variety may tighten. Contract Nonpareil requirements before the market reprices.
- Explore Spanish Marcona alternatives: For confectionery and marzipan applications, Spanish Marcona at EUR 6.60–9.00/kg remains the gold standard. However, Italian and Portuguese varieties are emerging as viable alternatives for some applications at lower price points.
- Build organic supply relationships: The organic almond segment is growing faster than conventional. Securing reliable organic supply from Spain or California now positions buyers for continued market growth. Organic premiums of 15–25% over conventional are likely to persist.
- Monitor California water situation: Long-term almond acreage decisions in California are increasingly driven by water availability and cost. Any significant drought development would affect 2027+ supply projections.